From Roll Call:
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) is considering a bid for governor, his office confirmed Wednesday night. In a statement released to the media following questions about his plans for 2010, Gerlach said he was carefully considering a statewide bid.
“I plan to make a decision in the coming weeks,” Gerlach said. “It is quite possible there may be five or six Republican candidates for Governor running by the time the dust settles. An enthusiastic primary for Governor gives all of us who consider ourselves leaders in the Republican Party an opportunity to prove that we have the ability and new ideas that can best lead the Commonwealth.”
This development is excellent news for Democrats who hope to pick up Gerlach’s Democratic-trending suburban Philly seat. Indeed, Gerlach may already be seeing the writing on the wall: after winning re-election with only 52% of the vote against a candidate that he routinely dismissed as not credible and unqualified, he may be in search of an exit strategy before his district’s changing demographics (and looming redistricting) come back to haunt him. And that’s not to mention what a depressing job it must be to be a foot soldier in the Boehner caucus of 2009.
If this seat comes open, it’ll definitely lean Democratic.
Who are the strong contenders on the Dem side for the Governor’s race in 2010?
a statewide Republican primary these days.
If so, the Governor’s race is even more important. Gerlach’s district in one of the top 10 grossest examples of gerrymandering in the country. He probaly cares more about the GOP winning the seat than whether he wins it since he has seniority. If the Dems get it he’s fucked (as is Charlie Dent and probably Tim Murphy) but since the last round of redistricitng didn’t really protect the GOP, not sure it will help them again.
So I’d love to see him run.
Likely Dem candidates for Governor are Allegheny County Executive Onorato, Lehigh County Executive Cunningham, Auditor General Wagner, and millionaire businessman Tom Knox.
Senate candidate likely will be Murphy or Schwartz, although I expect Schwartz stays in Congress.
Gerlach’s seat probably won’t be eliminated in 2010 (it’s population is actually growing), but will be pushed out further from Philadelphia and Montgomery County.
The redistricting occurs between 2010 and 2012 and will first affect the 2012 election.
If Gerlach runs, he’ll get at least one very conservative challenger. Add that to Senator Spector either retiring or getting primaried from the right again — and this could be a Pennsylvania Republican Civil War!!
As soon as I read the headline, I thought, he’s scared. The guy he ran against had like 17% name recognition in the end didn’t he?? lol and Gerlach was still held to 52%. I’m sure the writing on the wall must be fairly obvious to him. Not to mention that the state legislatures and Governor’s mansion are much more loyal to Democrats than they were when his seat was originally created. Its almost a sense of, what does he have to lose?
It’s time to increase your name recognition from 10% to 20%!